The Art Of Uncertainty: How To Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk And Luck
SKU: 85819589285

The Art Of Uncertainty: How To Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk And Luck

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The Art Of Uncertainty: How To Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk And LuckThe Art Of Uncertainty: How To Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk And Luck Probably the UKs greatest living statistician Telegraph From the UKs statistical national treasure, a clever and data driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we dont know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives? David Spiegelhalter has spent his career

The Art Of Uncertainty: How To Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk And Luck

‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph

From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty

We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?

David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.

In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.

Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know

'National treasure status… Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging — without being patronising — introduction to the mathematics of the unknown' - The Times

'Delightful... a coup... an invaluable guide to thinking about uncertainty, from a master of the craft... [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is universal' - Economist

'One of Britain’s most eminent statisticians… [Spiegelhalter] effortlessly shifts from trivial issues like the probability of pulling matching socks out of a drawer to more serious questions about the risk of cancer… A useful and persuasive account that gets us to recognise, understand and ultimately accept uncertainty' - Financial Times

'Timely... the distinguished statistician shows how simple arithmetic can impose order on the risks that are an integral part of life... One of academia’s best communicators.. this book.. impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction and creative obfuscation' - Observer

SPECIFICATIONS:

Author:David Spiegelhalter - Дэвид Шпигельхальтер

Publisher:Penguin

Language:English

Publication Date:2024

Number of pages:512 pst

Format:Hardcover

Width:193 mm / 7,6'

Height:224 mm / 8,8'

Weight:611 g

ISBN:9780241658628

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SKU: 85819589285

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Kim Wood
Dallas, US
★★★★★ 5
Good purchase
Style: 3 Pound, Pair
These are just the right weight for me to start gaining muscle back in my arms, after a large weight loss. They are of good quality, they are covered in a nice rubber like coating that is soft to the touch. They are small enough that i can take them with me when I travel. My dog has got hold of them a couple times and played with them, and they held up just fine without any damage.
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Reviewed in the United States on April 28, 2026
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Ky Mogg
West Palm Beach, US
★★★★★ 5
Solid, grippy, and they don’t roll away!
Style: 10 Pound, Pair
I bought these because I’m finally trying to build a consistent home workout routine and didn't want to drop a fortune on name-brand weights. I’ve been using this 10lb pair for about a month now for everything from overhead presses to lunges, and honestly, they’re exactly what I was looking for. The Pros: • That Neoprene Grip: The coating is fantastic. Even when my hands get pretty sweaty halfway through a workout, I don’t feel like I’m going to drop them. It’s a much "softer" feel than cold metal or hard plastic. • The Hex Shape: This is a small detail that makes a huge difference. Since the ends are hexagonal, they don't roll across the floor when I set them down between sets. They also stay put if I’m using them for "renegade rows" or floor work. • Compact Size: They aren’t bulky. I can easily shove them under my bed or in the corner of the closet when I’m done. • No Weird Odor: I was worried they might smell like a tire factory (which happens with some rubber-coated weights), but these had almost no scent right out of the box. The Cons: • Handle Diameter: The handles are a little on the thicker side. I have medium-sized hands and it’s fine, but if you have very small hands, they might feel a bit chunky to wrap your fingers all the way around. • Color Scuffs: The navy blue looks great, but if you clank them together or drop them on concrete, the coating can scuff or show dust pretty easily. The Verdict: If you just need a reliable set of weights for HIIT, Pilates, or general strength training, these are a no-brainer. You're basically getting gym-quality equipment for a fraction of the price. I’ll probably be back for the 15lb set in a few months!
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Reviewed in the United States on January 27, 2026
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Matt
Carnegie, US
★★★★★ 5
Simple, Comfortable, and Exactly What You Expect
Style: Rack with 3 Pairs (5, 10, and 15 Pound)
These are pretty much exactly what you want from a set of dumbbells — simple, functional, and no nonsense. The neoprene coating gives them a comfortable grip and keeps them from feeling slick in your hands, especially during longer workouts or if your hands get sweaty. The coating also helps keep them from banging up floors or making as much noise compared to bare metal weights, which is nice if you’re working out at home. Weight accuracy seems fine for general fitness use, and they’ve worked great for things like accessory movements, shoulder work, lighter presses, rehab-style exercises, and general muscle toning. The shape also helps keep them from rolling around everywhere when set down. They’re not fancy, and they’re not trying to be — they’re just dependable dumbbells that do what they’re supposed to do at a fair price. If you want straightforward hand weights for home workouts without overthinking it, these are a solid buy.
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Reviewed in the United States on May 26, 2026
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ChaCha
West Palm Beach, US
★★★★★ 5
Reliable, Comfortable Dumbbells I Actually Use Every Day
Style: 12 Pound, Pair, Style: 12 Pound, Pair
I’ve been using the Amazon Basics Neoprene Dumbbell Hand Weights daily, and they’ve honestly been perfect for my routine. Whether I’m doing a quick morning workout or adding resistance to a longer session, these have held up really well. The neoprene coating makes a big difference—it provides a comfortable, non-slip grip, even during longer workouts or when my hands get a little sweaty. They’re also easy to clean and don’t have that strong rubber smell some weights can have. I really appreciate the hex shape too. They stay put when I set them down (no rolling across the floor), which makes switching between exercises quick and frustration-free. The weight feels evenly distributed and well-balanced, so movements feel controlled and smooth. Overall, these are simple, no-frills dumbbells that just work. If you’re looking for reliable hand weights for everyday use—whether you’re a beginner or just need something dependable for home workouts—these are a great choice.
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Reviewed in the United States on April 14, 2026
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Rayven Z
Battle Creek, US
★★★★★ 5
Great quality and perfect for home workouts!
Style: Rack with 3 Pairs (3, 5, and 8 Pound)
I’m really happy with this dumbbell set. The weights are clearly labeled (3 lb, 5 lb, and 8 lb), which makes it super convenient to switch between exercises. The neoprene coating feels comfortable in hand and provides a good grip, even during longer workouts. The storage stand is a big plus—it keeps everything organized and saves space, which is perfect for a small home gym. The colors are also nice and make it easy to quickly grab the weight you need. Overall, this is a great set for beginners or anyone looking to add light strength training to their routine. Highly recommend!
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Reviewed in the United States on April 13, 2026

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